In what one author in Newsweek described as the “greatest political comeback in modern history,” former President Donald Trump is once again headed to the White House. This time, Trump has what many view as a clear mandate from the American people, having won the Electoral College, the popular vote and all seven swing states. Even better for Trump, he will have a unified government. Republicans now hold majorities in the Congress and have nominated six of nine current Supreme Court justices. Having clear mandate and a unified government — as well as never having to run again — will have a tremendous impact on what Trump can accomplish in his first 100 days.
Those who have been around Trump for even a little bit already know his guiding principal is “Promises Made, Promises Kept.” Accordingly, the best place to start this analysis are the promises he made on the campaign trail. Likewise, it is helpful to consider the people he nominates or appoints, as well as his ability to effectively manage other Republican leaders. This is particularly true of House Republicans, as they control the “purse strings” but hold only a razor-thin majority.
Staffing the Government
With any new administration, staffing the White House and federal agencies is essential to successfully implement policy during the first 100 days. However, because of power grabs, rivalries and the two-party system, this is often easier said than done. But Trump has something this time that he did not before: political experience. Trump now knows who he can trust and how to get things done in Washington, D.C.
Now, with political experience and a veteran team, Trump has been able to nominate his cabinet and appoint his executive staff in record time. Trump has selected Susie Wiles, manager of his 2024 presidential campaign, to serve as his chief of staff, ensuring continuity and discipline. Wiles, who has Trump’s respect and attention, is known to be a highly skilled industry veteran with a no-nonsense reputation. Many conservatives view Wiles as a breath of fresh air, as prior appointees to this position struggled — and sometimes forgot whom they worked for.
Another key executive staff appointment is that of Sergio Gor to lead the Office of Presidential Personnel. In this role, Gor will be responsible for vetting and filling the nearly 4,000 Trump administration jobs. It’s a critical role that will set the tone and create alignment to implement Trump’s agenda. Gor is also being viewed as an excellent choice because of his significant political experience, meticulous attention to detail and — perhaps most importantly — being a trusted friend and adviser to the Trump family.
Having Wiles and Gor in place will allow Trump to focus on getting his cabinet nominated and confirmed. While this process can be political theatre and full of fireworks, Republican control of the Senate all but guarantees that most of Trump’s Cabinet picks will be confirmed prior to his inauguration. Regardless, Trump will be able to advance his agenda on day one because he has a team lined up to fill deputy secretary positions, which do not require Senate confirmation and can serve as acting secretaries for up to two years if necessary.
While technically not a governmental agency, any discussion of staffing the Trump administration does not seem complete without mentioning the Department of Government Efficiency, a newly formed Presidential Advisory Commission headed up by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The initial stated goal of DOGE is to cut at least $500 billion of annual federal spending. Top talent from around the country is already lining up to work for DOGE full-time and without pay — a volunteer army of skilled professionals to take on fraud, waste and abuse of the federal government. Simply put, “Permanent Washington” can get quite entrenched, and DOGE is clearly sending shockwaves across the District of Columbia.
Securing the Border
Securing our southern border is Trump’s No. 1 stated priority. Beyond the national security concerns, virtually all policy matters — whether it be tariffs, immigration, drug and human trafficking, employment, import/export or the broader economy — are impacted by the security of our southern border.
To gauge Trump’s seriousness on the issue, it is helpful to look at his initial appointments. For example, Trump has appointed Tom Homan, his former Immigration and Customs Enforcements director, as his border czar. Homan has decades of experience and has been a steadfast champion for enforcement along the southern border. Trump also appointed Stephen Miller, his longtime immigration adviser, as the deputy chief of staff for policy. Miller, perhaps the most vocal of the immigration “hawks” in the Trump administration, is a strong proponent of mass deportation particularly for immigrants who entered the country illegally and have been charged or found guilty of another crime in the United States.
Trump has stated that he plans to begin deportation efforts on the first day of his presidency, citing a spike in unauthorized border crossings during the Biden administration as well as an increase in drug and human trafficking. Also of concern are the broader impacts of illegal border entry on the economy, such as housing shortages and strains on state budgets. And while Trump’s deportation policies are certain to be criticized, he is quick to point out that President Obama deported over 3 million people during his first term alone.
At the top of Trump’s deportation list are the “illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers,” according to his press secretary, Karoline Leavitt. His advisors also point to the 1.4 million immigrants who are still in the United States despite receiving a formal order of removal from a federal judge. And to curve the influx of migrants, Trump has stated that he will reinstate his “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires migrants entering from our southern border and seeking asylum to remain in Mexico until their court date in the United States. The Biden administration ended this policy in August 2022, which resulted in a huge spike of migrants entering the United States illegally.
Trump also plans to take on the cartels, who make an estimated $13 billion per year smuggling people — including victims of sex crime — into the United States. Trump says that he will use all tools available to him, including the United States military if necessary.
Further, Trump has pledged to sign an executive order to prevent federal agencies from granting automatic citizenship to children of immigrants who came to the United State illegally. This policy would condition birthright citizenship on at least one parent being a United States citizen or lawful permanent resident.
America First Trade Policy
“America First” trade policy means pursuing and enforcing policies that result in a level playing field for American businesses and workers to compete on the world stage. This vision recognizes that free, fair, reciprocal and balanced trade is a fundamental pillar of a pro-growth economic policy agenda, as well as a requirement for American strength and economic security.
Tariffs are the “tip of the spear” for Trump when it comes to trade. Trump used tariffs as a powerful negotiation tool during his first term and has stated he will continue to do so. To this point, Trump views tariffs as being functionally equivalent to executive orders: He can move fast and doesn’t have to ask Congress for permission. In Trump’s view, tariffs restore balance to trade agreements by hitting counterparties in their wallets, holding other nations accountable by aggressively enforcing trade laws and addressing unfair trade practices. Trump has repeatedly complained about American manufacturing being outsourced to countries with cheaper labor markets. This is a sore point for Trump and the millions of working class voters (including so called “Trump Democrats”) who rely heavily on a strong domestic manufacturing base.
During his first term, Trump negotiated key trade agreements that aggressively pushed for American interests, including increased market access, such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the China Phase One Agreement, the U.S.-Japan Trade and Digital Trade Agreements and the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement. Trump views these deals as ushering in a blue-collar boom — a testament to the positive impact of the America First approach.
Tax Cuts
Trump has promised significant tax relief for American workers and seniors. To do so, he will move quickly to deliver on campaign promises of no tax on tips or overtime and to expand the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $5,000. Additionally, to spur growth in the auto sector, Trump seeks tax credits for auto loan interest payments. Trump also seeks to exempt Social Security payments from taxation, but this may be a tougher sell to Congress.
Less clear is how hard Trump will fight to remove the cap on deductions for state and local taxes. Republicans enacted the cap in 2017 as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to combat huge deductions occurring primarily in blue state, large city real estate markets. Trump, however, feeling the heat from some Republicans in these states, has recently thrown his support towards removing or substantially increasing these caps.
What is nearly certain is that Trump will move for an extension of the TCJA, which reduced the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. Trump has also stated that he would like to further reduce the corporate tax rate to 15 percent for companies that manufacture their products in the United States. He believes this policy would stimulate economic growth and bolster domestic production.
Trump also wants to reduce the long-term capital gains rate from 20 percent to 15 percent. He seeks to “prime the pump” for venture capital and private equity investment to fuel job growth and innovation. Trump strongly believes that we will never tax our way out of our deficit. For Trump, a robust and growing economy is the key to American prosperity. Look for deregulation, when and as appropriate, in industries such as banking, finance, cryptocurrency, agriculture and energy.
Another priority for Trump is to preserve the 199A or Qualified Business Income deduction, which is set to expire next year. QBI is the net amount of income, gains, deductions and losses from any qualified trade or business. This income significantly affects taxes, as it is the key determinant of the Section 199A deduction. Only income earned through an American-based business qualifies, and it excludes capital gains, dividends and interest income. QBI ensures that business owners can benefit from the tax deduction, helping to lower their overall taxable income. This provision encourages business investment and growth, playing a crucial role in the financial planning of entrepreneurs.
Trump will also seek to preserve the TCJA’s estate tax exemption, which increased the exempt amount to $13 million from $5.5 million for single filers.
Energy Independence
“Drill Baby Drill” was not only a campaign promise, it is central to Trump’s energy plan. Trump’s transition team is currently putting together a wide-ranging energy package to roll out within days of his taking office that would approve export permits for new liquefied natural gas projects and increase drilling on federal lands and offshore.
With respect to LNG, Biden put a freeze on new LNG export permits in January to “study their environmental impact.” Doing this during an election year was widely viewed as a move to curry favor with the Democratic Party’s green voting bloc. Without export permits, developers were unable to go forward with multiyear construction plans for new projects, and five have completely stalled as a result. There have also been industry complaints that the Department of Energy has slow walked other necessary permits for LNG projects, despite such projects having already received full approval from the bipartisan Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Trump is expected to move quickly to streamline LNG permitting and approve associated export licenses.
With respect to drilling on federal lands and offshore, expect Trump to move quickly to expedite drilling permits on federal lands and to reopen five-year offshore drilling plans to include more lease sales. For context, the average time to complete a drilling permit on federal and tribal land averaged 258 days in the first three years of the Biden administration, up from 172 days during the four years of Trump’s first term. Trump is expected to expedite pending permits, hold sales more frequently and offer land that is more likely to produce oil. For further context, drilling on federal lands and offshore accounts for about 25 percent of American oil production and 12 percent of gas output.
Trump also plans to repeal or modify some of Biden’s key climate legislation and regulations, such as tax credits for electric vehicles and new clean power plant standards that aim to phase out coal and natural gas. He will also again seek to approve the Keystone Pipeline, a project that was an environmental flashpoint — and one that Biden canceled by withholding a key permit on his first day in office.
Also on Trump’s radar is asking Congress to provide new funding to replenish our nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was established as an emergency crude oil supply. Biden substantially depleted the SPR to help manage price spikes caused by the Ukraine war and high inflation here in the United States. For Trump, replenishing the SPR would boost short-term oil demand and encourage American production.
Trump is also expected to put pressure on the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog that advises industrialized countries on energy policy. Republicans have criticized the IEA’s focus on policies to reduce emissions, specifically the Paris Agreement (sometimes referred to as the Paris Climate Accords). Trump’s advisers have urged him to withhold funding unless the IEA takes a more pro-oil position and returns to its core mission of energy security.
Conclusion
Trump scored a historic political comeback, and he will once again serve as president of the United States, likely (and hopefully) with less rhetoric and broader support. Trump is a veteran player in Washington, D.C., now, so look for him to lead the team and put in the work. Ultimately, that is what will define his legacy.
This article shares the personal views and opinions of John Willding, who is a corporate finance partner in the Dallas office of Stinson LLP.