Energy-lending banks are projecting 2026 average oil prices of $55.44 per barrel, a $1.50/BBL decline from projections six months ago, according to the latest Energy Bank Price Deck Survey from Haynes Boone released Dec. 17.
The survey cites record levels of production fueled by higher OPEC production guidelines and hydrocarbon-friendly Trump Administration policies for downward pressures on pricing despite the counterweight of geopolitical conflicts involving major suppliers like Venezuela and Russia.
Despite sharpened demand for natural gas to feed data center electricity, LNG exports and cold-than-normal-weather patterns, energy lenders remain bearish about natural gas pricing in 2026. The Haynes Boone Spring survey projected gas prices averaging $3.54/MMBTU. That dropped to $3.43/MMBTU in the latest lender survey.
According to the Energy Information Agency, domestic natural gas production hit all-time highs this year, creating an imbalance of production over demand that likely influenced lender caution. According to the EIA’s most recent report, dry natural gas production for the first nine months of 2025 (an estimated 29,223Bcf) is running ahead of 2024 year-over-year (an estimated 28,214Bcf). Dry natural gas production in 2024 was the highest of any year on record, a statistic that dates back to 1930.
As the survey notes, natural gas futures in early December rose above $5/MMbtu for the first time since 2022. But by the time of the survey release they dropped to $4/MMbtu and below.
That continued price stubbornness, particularly in the natural gas market, was underscored last week with the announcement by Dallas-based Energy Transfer that it is suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG processing and export facility in Louisiana. The reason? The company said it decided to focus its capital resources on the “significant backlog of natural gas pipeline infrastructure projects that Energy Transfer believes provides superior risk/return profiles.”
All that said, however, lender pricing forecasts project almost identical trends in annual average averages for both oil and gas; with slight decreases through the late 2020s followed by slight increases from 2031 through 2034.
“The resiliency of average long-term pricing forecasts may be attributable to the continued softening in investors’ and lenders’ decarbonization sentiments for putting capital towards hydrocarbon-needy infrastructure and other projects,” the survey notes.
While that “resiliency” is much better than a pricing “free-fall” many feared, particularly in natural gas, it is also not the energy bonanza many had hoped would emerge from record LNG exports and the increased demand for electricity to operate the hyperscale computers demanded by artificial intelligence.